Assessment of the level of demographic security of the Republic of Kazakhstan
Demographic security issues
Relevance of the project:
Demographic security issues are of particular importance for the Republic of Kazakhstan: a huge and sparsely populated territory; a small number of cities and a large proportion of the rural population; pronounced regional differentiation of socio-economic, demographic development. These and other objective factors actualize the regional approach to the problem. The assessment of demographic security should take into account the peculiarities of each region of the republic, the "average" Kazakh indicator does not allow you to see the real picture.
This project is aimed at assessing the level of demographic security of Kazakhstan. The analysis of the current demographic situation will allow us to determine the demographic potential, identify risks and threats. For the first time, an indicative system of criteria for assessing the level of demographic security will be developed and tested. This will make it possible to develop recommendations for decision-making in order to reduce and prevent risks and threats and will contribute to strengthening the national unity and security of the state.
Project objective:
To develop an indicative system of criteria and an algorithm for assessing the level of demographic security of Kazakhstan and, in accordance with it, to assess demographic risks and challenges, both at the regional and national levels.
Expected results:
As a result of the project implementation, for the first time, an assessment of the level of demographic security of Kazakhstan will be given in accordance with the long-term perspective of ensuring stable national security of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Results achieved:
2020
- The analysis of the regulatory framework and the existing legislative mechanisms for ensuring demographic security of Kazakhstan has been carried out.
- A source and historiographical review of demographic security issues was conducted.
- A comprehensive analysis of the current demographic situation in Kazakhstan has been carried out, regional differences have been identified.
2021:
- The differentiation of demographic processes in the regions of Kazakhstan has been studied and regional clusters have been identified.
- Interactive demographic maps of Kazakhstan have been developed. The results are presented in the web application "Demography of Kazakhstan" (https://demography-kz.shinyapps.io/demography_ru /). A certificate of entering information into the state register of rights to objects protected by copyright No. 21423 dated November 5, 2021 was received. Five main demographic processes are presented on interactive demographic maps: 1) population density and ethnic composition; 2) urbanization of the population; 3) age structure; 4) reproduction of the population; 5) migration of the population. The data reflect the state in 1999, 2009 and 2019, which gives the opportunity to follow the dynamics of these processes, and to identify their differentiation in the studied regions. The web application is developed in three languages (Kazakh, Russian, English). It also provides analytical comments on the results of cluster analysis and the dynamics of the studied processes.
- A comprehensive sociological study was conducted and the reproductive and migration attitudes of Kazakh youth, including East Kazakhstan region, were identified. The purpose of the sociological study is to analyze the reproductive and migration attitudes of Kazakh youth as factors affecting potential and real demographic threats in Kazakhstan, taking into account regional peculiarities. A mass questionnaire survey of 500 representatives of Kazakh youth aged 17-25 years living in the southern, western, northern and eastern regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan was conducted. 3 focus groups were conducted in each region. Based on their results, an analytical report was prepared and published: Stolyarova E.O., Aubakirova Zh.S., Alekseenko A.N. "Reproductive and migration attitudes of modern Kazakh youth. Collection of methodological and analytical materials of sociological research". – Ust-Kamenogorsk: Publishing house "Media Alliance", 2021. - 80 p.
- On October 16-24, 2021, a scientific internship took place at the HSE Institute of Demography in Moscow. On October 21-22, 2021, as part of the internship, the XX International Scientific and Practical conference was held jointly with the A.G. Vishnevsky Institute of Demography, Higher School of Economics Research University and Altai State University. A collection of scientific papers of this international conference has been published.
- Demographic risks and threats in Kazakhstan have been identified. The factors influencing potential and real demographic threats are analyzed. Presentation and discussion of the findings in the framework of the scientific and methodological webinar "Migration and reproductive behavior in a modernizing society".
- Participation in foreign and domestic international scientific and practical conferences, presentation of preliminary research results
- On 15.04.2021, the republican online conference with international participation "The program "Rukhani Zhangyru" as a factor in the development of the scientific space of Kazakhstan" was held.
- On 08.10.2021, a scientific and methodological webinar "Migration and reproductive behavior in a modernizing society" was held. Within the framework of the event, the following were presented: "Demographic map of Kazakhstan", an analytical report on the results of a sociological study "Reproductive and migration attitudes of modern Kazakh youth" and much more. The webinar was attended by scientists, students, undergraduates and doctoral students of Kazakhstan, Russia and Kyrgyzstan.
- On October 21-22, 2021, the XX International Scientific and Practical conference "Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories" was held. For the first time it was conducted jointly with the A.G. Vishnevsky Institute of Demography of the HSE (Moscow, Russia).
- Demographic risks and threats in Kazakhstan have been identified. The factors influencing potential and real demographic threats are analyzed. Presentation and discussion of the findings in the framework of the scientific and methodological webinar "Migration and reproductive behavior in a modernizing society".
- Participation in foreign and domestic international scientific and practical conferences, presentation of preliminary research results
- On 15.04.2021, the republican online conference with international participation "The program "Rukhani Zhangyru" as a factor in the development of the scientific space of Kazakhstan" was held.
- On 08.10.2021, a scientific and methodological webinar "Migration and reproductive behavior in a modernizing society" was held. Within the framework of the event, the following were presented: "Demographic map of Kazakhstan", an analytical report on the results of a sociological study "Reproductive and migration attitudes of modern Kazakh youth" and much more. The webinar was attended by scientists, students, undergraduates and doctoral students of Kazakhstan, Russia and Kyrgyzstan.
- On October 21-22, 2021, the XX International Scientific and Practical conference "Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories" was held. For the first time it was conducted jointly with the A.G. Vishnevsky Institute of Demography of the HSE (Moscow, Russia).
The results of the research work have shown the effectiveness of the differentiated cluster method as a tool for assessing the level of demographic security of the Republic of Kazakhstan, identifying regional risks and threats. A total of 12 publications were published (including 2 collections, 3 articles in scientific publications of the RSCI database, 1 article in a journal recommended by the KKSON of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan, 5 articles in collections of scientific papers of the MNPC and 1 electronic resource with copyright certificate No. 21423).
Members of the research group:
- Zhanna Aubakirova, Ph.D., Director of SIC «Digital Social Recearch». ID SCOPUS: 57201672334, ID WEB OF SCIENCE: AAQ - 7920 – 2020 (https://www2.scopus.com/authid/detail.uri?authorId=57201672334)
- Alexander Alekseenko, Doctor of I.N., STS SIC «Digital Social Recearch», ID SCOPUS: 57215212322, ID WEB OF SCIENCE: AAAS -7920-2020.
- Eleonora Stolyarova, Candidate of Social Sciences, STS SIC «Digital Social Recearch». ORCID 0000-0003-0722-1589 (https://orcid.org/my-orcid?orcid=0000-0003-0722-1589)
- Mukhtar Tolegen, PhD, Professor. ID SCOPUS: 55978491800.
- Tamerlane Omirzak, Master of Humanities in the specialty "History".
- Askhat Toibayev, 3-year doctoral student of the specialty 6M020300 "History".
- Didara Yessimkhanova, 2-year doctoral student of the specialty 6M020300 "History".
List of publications:
- Aubakirova Zh.S., Stolyarova E.O., Omirzak T.E. Demographic security of Kazakhstan as a factor of sustainable development // Bulletin of KazNPU, series "Historical and socio-political sciences". - 2020. - No. 4. – pp.285-288.
- Alekseenko A.N., Aubakirova Zh.With the number of the Kazakh population at the end of the XIX century. // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: collection of scientific works of the XIX International Scientific and Practical Conference, December 4, 2020, Ust-Kamenogorsk. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: Media Alliance, 2020. – pp. 3-9.
- Omirzak T.E., Alekseenko, A.N. Toybayev A.Zh. Demographic environment of Kazakhstan: potential and risks // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories: Collection of scientific papers of the XIX International Scientific and Practical Conference, December 4, 2020, Ust-Kamenogorsk. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: Media Alliance, 2020. – pp. 191-203.
- Maulit A., Nugumanova A.B., Aubakirova Zh.S., Alekseenko A.N.. Stolyarova E.O. Interactive demographic map. Certificate of entry of information into the State register of rights to objects protected by copyright No. 21423 dated November 5, 2021.
- Stolyarova E.O., Aubakirova Zh.S., Alekseenko A.N. Reproductive and migration attitudes of modern Kazakh youth. Collection of methodological and analytical materials of sociological research. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: Publishing house "Media Alliance", 2021. - 80 p.
- Stolyarova E.O., Aubakirova Zh.S., Alekseenko A.N. Migration attitudes of urban Kazakh youth (regional aspect) // Bulletin Almanach Science Association France-Kazakhstan. 2021. Vol. 2. – p.23-32.
- Aubakirova Zh.S., Stolyarova E.O., Omyrzak T.E., Esimkhanova D.M. Cluster analysis as a tool for assessing the level of demographic security in Kazakhstan // Bulletin Almanach Science Association France-Kazakhstan. 2021. Vol. 2. P. 66 – 79.
- Aubakirova Zh.S., Stolyarova E.O., Toybayev A.Zh. Fertility as a factor of development and risks for the modern demographic system of Kazakhstan // Bulletin Almanach Science Association France-Kazakhstan. 2021. Vol. 2. P. 106-113.
- Aubakirova, A.N. Alekseyenko, E.O., Stolyarova. Demographic challenges to the national security of Kazakhstan // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 – Ust-Kamenogorsk-Moscow. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: "Media Alliance", 2021. – pp.10-23.
- Alekseenko A.N., Omirzak T.E. Challenges of immigration in Kazakhstan at the beginning of the XXI century // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 – Ust-Kamenogorsk-Moscow. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: "Media Alliance", 2021. - pp. 24-30.
- Stolyarova E.O. Reproductive and migration attitudes of Kazakh youth: potential risks of social development (based on the materials of a sociological study) // Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 – Ust-Kamenogorsk-Moscow. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: "Media Alliance", 2021. - pp. 163-170.
- Ethnodemographic processes in Kazakhstan and adjacent territories. Collection of scientific papers of the XX International Scientific and Practical Conference, October 21-22, 2021 Edited by A.N.Alekseenko, J.S. Aubakirova, N.L.Krasnobaeva. – Ust-Kamenogorsk-Moscow. – Ust-Kamenogorsk: "Media Alliance", 2021. – 223 p.
