Prognostication & Expert Judgement of Transport & Transport Engineering

Description: Forecasting, basic concepts, models and methods of forecasting, the mathematical apparatus used, the forecasting process, its methodological and informational support, the accuracy of forecast estimates. Expertise and expert assessment of transport and transport equipment. Quality criteria of expert assessment, models of expert assessment, examination procedure, reliability of expert assessment.

Amount of credits: 6

Пререквизиты:

• Principles of Maintenance of Transport Engineering

Course Workload:

Component: University component

Cycle: Profiling disciplines

Goal

• Understand the principles of forecasting and master methods of forecasting and expert evaluation of transport equipment

Objective

• Apply methods of forecasting processes in transport and methods of expert assessment of transport equipment

Learning outcome: knowledge and understanding

• Knowledge of the principles of forecasting processes in transport and methods of expert assessment of transport equipment

Learning outcome: applying knowledge and understanding

• Application of knowledge and understanding of methods of forecasting processes in transport and expert assessment of transport equipment to solve problems of transport equipment efficiency

Learning outcome: formation of judgments

• forming judgments about the current state and development of transport equipment

Learning outcome: communicative abilities

• communication skills in the process of analytical work on forecasting processes in transport and expert assessment of transport equipment

Learning outcome: learning skills or learning abilities

• өз бетінше оқу дағдысын және докторантурада оқу қабілетін меңгеру

Teaching methods

When conducting training sessions, it is planned to use the following educational technologies: - Innovative technologies and analytical methods in forecasting processes and expert assessment of transport

Assessment of the student's knowledge

Teacher oversees various tasks related to ongoing assessment and determines students' current performance twice during each academic period. Ratings 1 and 2 are formulated based on the outcomes of this ongoing assessment. The student's learning achievements are assessed using a 100-point scale, and the final grades P1 and P2 are calculated as the average of their ongoing performance evaluations. The teacher evaluates the student's work throughout the academic period in alignment with the assignment submission schedule for the discipline. The assessment system may incorporate a mix of written and oral, group and individual formats.

The evaluating policy of learning outcomes by work type

Evaluation form

The student's final grade in the course is calculated on a 100 point grading scale, it includes:

• 40% of the examination result;
• 60% of current control result.

The final grade is calculated by the formula:

 

Where Midterm 1, Midterm 2are digital equivalents of the grades of Midterm 1 and 2;

E is a digital equivalent of the exam grade.

Final alphabetical grade and its equivalent in points:

The letter grading system for students' academic achievements, corresponding to the numerical equivalent on a four-point scale:

Topics of lectures

• Forecasting Principles
• Forecasting Methods
• Problem of Choosing the Forecasting Method
• Classification of Forecasting Methods
• Expert (Intuitive, Heuristic) Forecasting Methods
• Formalized (Factographic) Methods
• Multiple Forecasting Methods
• Distribution of Forecasting Methods
• Methods for Expert Evaluation
• Evaluation of Vehicle
• Evaluation Approaches
• Classification of Evaluation Methods
• Interviews, User Introspection
• Usability Evaluation in the Lab
• Controlled Experiments

Key reading

• 1 Armstrong, J. S. Evaluating Forecasting Methods. 2001 2 Armstrong, J.S. Evaluating Forecasting Methods. In Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners (Ed. J. Scott Armstrong). Kluwer, 2001. 3. Егорова, Наталья Евгеньевна. Автосервис. Модели и методы прогнозирования деятельности к изучению дисциплины / Н.Е.Егорова, А.С.Мудунов. - М. : Экзамен, 2002. - 255 c. - Библиогр.: с.250 . - ISBN 5-8212-0372-4 : 300 т. 4 А. Д., Ковшов А. Н., Схиртладзе А. Г. Теоретические основы прогнозирования в технике и технологии. М.: Высшая школа, 2010. - 520 с. Орлов А.И. Экспертные оценки. Учеб. пособие. – М.: 2002. 5. Проблемы прогнозирования и оптимизации работы транспорта : научное издание / ред. Л. В. Канторович ; : Л. В. Канторович, В. Н. Лившиц. - М. : Наука, 1982. - 328 с.

Further reading

• Бешелев С.Д., Гурвич Ф.Г. Экспертные оценки. – М.: Наука, 1973. – 79 с.